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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Libya: Unrest and U.S. Policy


Christopher M. Blanchard
Acting Section Research Manager

Over forty years ago, Muammar al Qadhafi led a revolt against the Libyan monarchy in the name of nationalism, self-determination, and popular sovereignty. Opposition groups citing the same principles are now revolting against Qadhafi to bring an end to the authoritarian political system he has controlled in Libya for the last four decades. The Libyan uprising is occurring in the context of popular protest movements and political change in other countries in North Africa and the Middle East, and the situation in Libya is demanding extraordinary responses from regional and international decision makers. In mid-February 2011, confrontations between opposition activists and government security forces in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Bayda resulted in the death of some unarmed protestors. Security forces used military force to subdue subsequent funeral gatherings and protests in incidents that reportedly killed or wounded dozens, if not hundreds, of civilians. Opposition groups seized several police and military facilities and took control of some eastern cities. In the weeks that have followed, Qadhafi-supporters’ counterattacks on opposition-controlled areas and opposition advances toward Qadhafi strongholds have pushed Libya to the brink of civil war.

The opposition has been bolstered by defections of some military units, senior officers, and civilian officials to their cause. The opposition has formed an Interim Transitional National Council that seeks international recognition as the coordinating body of the Libyan opposition. Qadhafi may retain limited popular and family support and is relying on the backing of hard-line security elements prepared to use military force against opponents. Qadhafi and his supporters describe the uprising as a foreign and Islamist conspiracy and are attempting to outlast their opponents. Both sides continue to express wariness of direct foreign military intervention, although opposition forces reportedly have discussed seeking foreign air support. A stalemate has emerged, with inconclusive fighting in some western cities and in eastern coastal areas.

Until recently, the United States government was pursuing a policy of rapprochement and engagement toward Qadhafi and Libya after decades of confrontation, sanctions, and Libyan isolation. The United Nations Security Council, the United States, the European Union and other parties have imposed an arms embargo on Libya and targeted sanctions on Qadhafi, his family, and his supporters in an attempt to limit further violence against Libyan citizens. Multilateral efforts to evacuate third-country nationals continue, and the United States and several international partners are mobilizing to provide assistance to tens of thousands now facing difficult conditions in temporary camps in Tunisia and Egypt.

Options for asserting further U.S. and international influence on developments in Libya are complicated by the prevailing political uncertainty and the considerable tradeoffs associated with direct military intervention. Many observers have warned that Libya’s weak government institutions, potentially divisive political dynamics, and current conflict increase the possibility that sustained unrest could follow any fundamental change in government. President Obama has ordered U.S. military and civilian officials to prepare for various contingencies, and some in Congress have urged the Administration to take direct action to protect the opposition and help Libyans unseat Qadhafi. In evaluating U.S. policy options, Congress may seek to better understand the roots and nature of the unfolding conflict in Libya, the views of key players, and the potential consequences of various policy options now under consideration.



Date of Report: March 9, 2011
Number of Pages: 12
Order Number: RL33142
Price: $29.95

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