Libya: Unrest and U.S. Policy

Christopher M. Blanchard
Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs

After more than 40 years of authoritarian repression and over seven months of armed conflict, fundamental political change has come to Libya. The Libyan people, their interim Transitional National Council (TNC), and the international community are now shifting their attention from their struggle with the remnants of Muammar al Qadhafi’s defeated regime to longer-term challenges posed by a planned transition to democratic governance. The rebel military victory over pro-Qadhafi forces signals the beginning of a period that may prove more complex and challenging for Libyans and their international supporters alike. Immediate tasks include establishing and maintaining security, preventing criminality and reprisals, restarting Libya’s economy, and taking the first steps toward defining a new political system. In the coming weeks and months, Libyans will face key questions about basic terms for transitional justice, a new constitutional order, political participation, and Libyan foreign policy. Security challenges, significant investment needs, and vigorous political debates are likely to emerge.

As of September 29, increasingly isolated areas in central and southern Libya remain contested. Muammar al Qadhafi has not been located or detained, and small groups of pro-Qadhafi forces are capable of armed resistance. The U.S. military continues to participate in Operation Unified Protector, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military operation to enforce United Nations (U.N.) Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorizes “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians. On September 21, NATO extended the military operation for a further 90 days, if necessary. U.S. officials express confidence that nuclear materials and chemical weapons components that are stored in Libya remain secure and state that remote monitoring will continue. The proliferation of military weaponry from unsecured Libyan stockpiles—including small arms, explosives, and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles—remains a serious concern. The Obama Administration has reiterated that it has no intention of deploying U.S. military forces on the ground in Libya. The U.S. Embassy in Tripoli has reopened with a limited staff. Congress may consider proposals for assisting Libya’s transitional authorities or supporting security efforts.

The U.N. General Assembly has recognized the TNC as Libya’s U.N. representative, and the Security Council has adopted Resolution 2009, creating a three-month mandate for a U.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to assist Libyans with public security and transition arrangements. The resolution also sets conditions for the sale of arms and training to the Libyan state and partially lifts the asset freeze for certain purposes. The TNC continues to call for the release of Libyan assets seized pursuant to Resolutions 1970 and 1973. Transfers have begun from multiple governments, including $1.5 billion in previously blocked assets that the U.S. government has arranged to support Libyan humanitarian, fuel, and salary needs. U.S. Treasury Department licenses now authorize the release of assets belonging to some Libyan entities and allow some transactions with Libyan financial institutions.

A TNC stabilization team is leading Libyan efforts to deliver services; assess reconstruction needs; and begin to reform ministries, public utilities, and security forces. The TNC has issued orders concerning security and established a high security council to coordinate volunteer forces. Initial reports from Libya suggest that local militias and some emergent political groups may oppose certain TNC policies and may seek to replace certain TNC personalities. Overall, TNC officials continue to express confidence in Libyan unity and plan changes to the membership of the interim government. As Libyans work to shape their future, Congress and the Administration will have the first opportunity to fully redefine U.S.-Libyan relations since the 1960s.


Date of Report: September 29, 2011
Number of Pages: 30
Order Number: RL33142
Price: $29.95

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