Somalia: Current Conditions and Prospects for a Lasting Peace

Ted Dagne
Specialist in African Affairs

In October 2002, the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) launched a peace process designed to end factional fighting in Somalia, led by the government of Kenya. In September 2003, the parties agreed on a Transitional National Charter (TNC). In August 2004, a 275-member Transitional Parliament was inaugurated in Kenya. In October 2004, parliament elected Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as the new president of Somalia. In June 2006, the forces of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) took control of the capital, Mogadishu. During the six-month rule by the ICU, Mogadishu became relatively peaceful, but efforts to bring peace did not lead to a major breakthrough. On December 28, 2006, Ethiopian troops captured Mogadishu with little resistance from the ICU. The Ethiopian intervention led to more chaos and instability in Somalia. In January 2007, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) came to the capital, Mogadishu, from Baidoa after the ouster of the ICU.

In June 2008, the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), a group dominated by members of the ICU, signed an agreement in Djibouti mediated by then-United Nations Special Envoy Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah. The parties agreed to a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, and the deployment of a United Nations peacekeeping force. A number of towns, including the third-largest town, Kismaayo, are now under the control of Al-Shabaab, a group opposed to the TFG. In February 2008, then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice designated Al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. In January 2009, the Somali Parliament elected the leader of the ARS, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad, as president. In February 2009, President Ahmad appointed Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke as prime minister. In late October 2010, President Ahmad appointed Mohamed A. Mohamed as prime minster shortly after Sharmarke resigned. In June 2011, Prime Minister Mohamed was forced to resign because the Speaker demanded a new government. Following the resignation, there were a number of demonstrations in Mogadishu and other towns in support of the Prime Minister. Deputy Prime Minister Abdiweli M. Ali (from New York like his predecessor) was appointed prime minister and in late June Parliament approved his nomination.

Humanitarian, political, and security conditions continue to deteriorate across south-central Somalia. Between May and August 2011, an estimated 30,000 children have died as a result of the current humanitarian crisis. An estimated 3.7 million people are in need of assistance, and one in three children are malnourished. There are an estimated 792,544 Somali refugees in neighboring countries and 1.7 Internally Displaced People (IDPs). An estimated 12.4 million people are in need of assistance in the Horn of Africa region. In early August 2011, Al-Shabaab forces pulled out of Mogadishu, the capital.

The Obama Administration is actively engaged in support of the TFG and in an effort to contain terrorist groups in Somalia and the region. The U.S. Congress has passed a number of resolutions and has conducted multiple hearings on Somalia. The United States provided an estimated $403.8 million in assistance to Somalia in FY2009. In FY2010, Somalia received $152.1 million. The Obama Administration has requested $84.9 million for FY2011 and $82.3 for FY2012. The United States also provides material support to TFG forces. As of August 2011, the United States has provided $581 million in response to the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa region.

On July 11, 2010, Al-Shabaab carried out multiple suicide bombings in Kampala, Uganda. An estimated 76 people, including one American, were killed and more than 80 injured. In late November 2010, President Museveni visited Mogadishu and met with Somali officials and AMISOM forces.


Date of Report: August 31, 2011
Number of Pages: 37
Order Number: RL33911
Price: $29.95

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