Nicolas Cook
Specialist in African Affairs
Côte d'Ivoire has entered a renewed period of extreme political instability, accompanied by significant political violence, following a contested presidential election designed to cap an often forestalled peace process. The election was held under the terms of the 2007 Ouagadougou Political Agreement, the most recent in a series of partially implemented peace accords aimed at reunifying Côte d'Ivoire, which has remained largely divided between a government-controlled southern region and a rebel-controlled zone in the north since the outbreak of a civil war in 2002.
This instability directly threatens long-standing U.S. and international efforts to support a transition to peace, political stability, and democratic governance in Côte d'Ivoire, among other U.S. objectives. Indirectly at stake are broader, long-term U.S. efforts to ensure regional stability, peace, democratic and accountable state capacity-building and economic growth in West Africa, along with billions of dollars of U.S. foreign aid to achieve these ends. The United States has supported the Ivoirian peace process since the 2002 war, both diplomatically and financially, with funding appropriated by Congress. The United States supports the ongoing U.N. Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI); funded a UNOCI predecessor, the U.N. Mission in Côte d'Ivoire; and assisted in the deployment in 2003 of a now defunct Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) military intervention force. Congress may be asked to consider further Côte d'Ivoire-related assistance if UNOCI is expanded or if ECOWAS mounts a new military intervention force; or to fund emergency humanitarian interventions if the political-military situation significantly deteriorates, as is likely under a range of potential scenarios.
On November 28, 2010, a presidential election runoff vote was held between the incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, the two candidates who had won the most votes in a first-round October 31, 2010 poll. Both candidates claim to have won the runoff vote and separately inaugurated themselves as president and formed rival governments. Ouattara bases his victory claim on the U.N.-certified runoff results announced by Côte d'Ivoire's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). These show that he won the election with a 54.1% share of votes, against 45.9% for Gbagbo. The international community, including the United States, has endorsed the IEC-announced poll results as accurate and authoritative and demanded that Gbagbo accept them and cede the presidency to Ouattara. Gbagbo, however, appealed the IEC decision to the Ivoirian Constitutional Council, which reviewed and annulled it, proclaiming Gbagbo president, with 51.5% of votes against 48.6% for Ouattara. Gbagbo therefore claims to have been duly elected and refuses to hand power over to Ouattara.
The electoral standoff has caused a sharp rise in political tension and violence, resulting in many deaths and human rights abuses, and provoked attacks on U.N. peacekeepers. The international community has broadly rejected Gbagbo's electoral victory claim and endorsed Ouattara as the legally elected president, and is using diplomatic and financial efforts, personal sanctions, and a military intervention threat to pressure Gbagbo to step aside. Top U.S officials have attempted to directly pressure Gbagbo to step down, and an existing U.S. ban on bilateral aid has been augmented with visa restrictions and financial sanctions targeting the Gbagbo Administration. As of early 2011, Ouattara and Gbagbo were each rigidly adhering to their positions, and regional mediation had produced no tangible results. Continued political volatility is likely if either Ouattara or Gbagbo prevails, and the country is likely to remain bisected in the latter case. A war, whether civil or due to external intervention, is also possible. A unity government might temporarily reduce political tension, but would likely not resolve the root causes of the crisis. If the crisis is resolved, Côte d'Ivoire is well-placed to recover politically and economically.
Date of Report: January 28, 2011
Number of Pages: 54
Order Number: RS21989
Price: $29.95
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Document available via e-mail as a pdf file or in paper form.
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Specialist in African Affairs
Côte d'Ivoire has entered a renewed period of extreme political instability, accompanied by significant political violence, following a contested presidential election designed to cap an often forestalled peace process. The election was held under the terms of the 2007 Ouagadougou Political Agreement, the most recent in a series of partially implemented peace accords aimed at reunifying Côte d'Ivoire, which has remained largely divided between a government-controlled southern region and a rebel-controlled zone in the north since the outbreak of a civil war in 2002.
This instability directly threatens long-standing U.S. and international efforts to support a transition to peace, political stability, and democratic governance in Côte d'Ivoire, among other U.S. objectives. Indirectly at stake are broader, long-term U.S. efforts to ensure regional stability, peace, democratic and accountable state capacity-building and economic growth in West Africa, along with billions of dollars of U.S. foreign aid to achieve these ends. The United States has supported the Ivoirian peace process since the 2002 war, both diplomatically and financially, with funding appropriated by Congress. The United States supports the ongoing U.N. Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI); funded a UNOCI predecessor, the U.N. Mission in Côte d'Ivoire; and assisted in the deployment in 2003 of a now defunct Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) military intervention force. Congress may be asked to consider further Côte d'Ivoire-related assistance if UNOCI is expanded or if ECOWAS mounts a new military intervention force; or to fund emergency humanitarian interventions if the political-military situation significantly deteriorates, as is likely under a range of potential scenarios.
On November 28, 2010, a presidential election runoff vote was held between the incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, the two candidates who had won the most votes in a first-round October 31, 2010 poll. Both candidates claim to have won the runoff vote and separately inaugurated themselves as president and formed rival governments. Ouattara bases his victory claim on the U.N.-certified runoff results announced by Côte d'Ivoire's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). These show that he won the election with a 54.1% share of votes, against 45.9% for Gbagbo. The international community, including the United States, has endorsed the IEC-announced poll results as accurate and authoritative and demanded that Gbagbo accept them and cede the presidency to Ouattara. Gbagbo, however, appealed the IEC decision to the Ivoirian Constitutional Council, which reviewed and annulled it, proclaiming Gbagbo president, with 51.5% of votes against 48.6% for Ouattara. Gbagbo therefore claims to have been duly elected and refuses to hand power over to Ouattara.
The electoral standoff has caused a sharp rise in political tension and violence, resulting in many deaths and human rights abuses, and provoked attacks on U.N. peacekeepers. The international community has broadly rejected Gbagbo's electoral victory claim and endorsed Ouattara as the legally elected president, and is using diplomatic and financial efforts, personal sanctions, and a military intervention threat to pressure Gbagbo to step aside. Top U.S officials have attempted to directly pressure Gbagbo to step down, and an existing U.S. ban on bilateral aid has been augmented with visa restrictions and financial sanctions targeting the Gbagbo Administration. As of early 2011, Ouattara and Gbagbo were each rigidly adhering to their positions, and regional mediation had produced no tangible results. Continued political volatility is likely if either Ouattara or Gbagbo prevails, and the country is likely to remain bisected in the latter case. A war, whether civil or due to external intervention, is also possible. A unity government might temporarily reduce political tension, but would likely not resolve the root causes of the crisis. If the crisis is resolved, Côte d'Ivoire is well-placed to recover politically and economically.
Date of Report: January 28, 2011
Number of Pages: 54
Order Number: RS21989
Price: $29.95
Follow us on TWITTER at http://www.twitter.com/alertsPHP or #CRSreports
Document available via e-mail as a pdf file or in paper form.
To order, e-mail Penny Hill Press or call us at 301-253-0881. Provide a Visa, MasterCard, American Express, or Discover card number, expiration date, and name on the card. Indicate whether you want e-mail or postal delivery. Phone orders are preferred and receive priority processing.
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